[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030940 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-031145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS AND EXTREME SW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030940Z - 031145Z

A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS FROM SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN
AL THIS MORNING. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW.

REMNANT OUTFLOW/COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM A
WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SRN LA EWD INTO THE MS AND AL BOOT HEELS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE NW GULF. A LINE OF STORMS
PERSISTS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTAL BOUNDARY
AND LIFTING NWD OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. S OF THE COASTAL
BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE SUPPORTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR (25 TO 30 KT) WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL FRONT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS WITHIN THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...
MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THE
LINE AS IT CONTINUES EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF
THE LINE...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

29229041 31119023 31678863 30608773 

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