[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021552 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN LA INTO EXTREME SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021552Z - 021745Z

A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND EXTREME SERN MS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
REGION IS WARM...VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND SBCAPE IS IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG
RANGE. MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW OF 30-40 KT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA EWD INTO AL AHEAD OF
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL TX.

NEGATIVE ASPECT AT THIS TIME IS PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PREVALENT OVER SWRN PARTS OF
LA...THIS IS BEHIND MAIN FRONTAL BAND. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING
OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN LA MAY AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SURFACE
INFLOW AHEAD OF STRONG BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LCH SWD INCREASING
 LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...NEXT CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THIS REGION.  AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

29029217 29549219 29969194 30229163 30399120 30838984
30918898 30208827 29058859 28538939 

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