[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020930 
MSZ000-LAZ000-021130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020930Z - 021130Z

MARGINAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
A WW.

EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MS SWWD THROUGH SWRN LA. STRONGEST STORMS IN
THIS LINE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW MS WHERE LATEST RADAR
DATA HAS SHOWN OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE JACKSON VWP SHOWS
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOWS
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2 BASED ON CURRENT
STORM MOTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FORCED ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING COLD POOL AND ARE MOVING INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29909322 30759207 32169085 32469033 31868991 29799151 

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