[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020912 
TXZ000-NMZ000-021315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE THROUGH E CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 020912Z - 021315Z

SNOWFALL WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM THROUGH 15Z.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WAKE OF ARCTIC SURGE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FROM THE NRN PARTS OF W TX...
ERN NM INTO MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET LIFTING NWD
THROUGH W CNTRL TX WILL MAINTAIN ASCENT IN VICINITY OF SW-NE
ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS FROM ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS VERTICAL MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH LAYERS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW BANDS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN PARTS
OF W TX. HOWEVER...SNOW IS INCREASING A LITTLE FARTHER E FROM THE
SERN TX PANHANDLE SWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
TAKE ON A MORE BANDED STRUCTURE WITH TIME. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY ALSO RESULT IN POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL.

..DIAL.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

35890074 35250070 34340163 33480245 33870406 35180350
36030169 

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