[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020337 
LAZ000-TXZ000-020630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COAST SWWD TO PORTIONS LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 020337Z - 020630Z

HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASING ATTM OVER HOU AREA...AND SHOULD
SHIFT/EXPAND EWD ALONG MID/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. 
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN ONE MORE NE-SW BANDS MAY PRODUCE 1.5-2.5
INCH/HOUR RATES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST WHERE INFLOW LAYER IS DEEPEST IN
PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MS SWWD ACROSS SWRN LA
THEN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM OFFSHORE GLS. FRONT HAS BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY FROM THERE SWWD TO MATAGORDA/CORPUS CHRISTI
BAYS...AND MAY BE RETREATING NWD TOWARD SOME OF GLS-PSX COASTAL AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT THOSE
STATIONS.  BOUNDARY STILL IS MOVING SWD AS COLD FRONT ACROSS DEEP S
TX COUNTIES OF ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS. THIS SWRN FRONTAL SEGMENT
WILL BE REINFORCED IN 3-4 HOURS BY OUTFLOW-REINFORCED ARCTIC FRONT
NOW SURGING SEWD THROUGH SAT/COT AREAS.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST PW 1-1.25 INCH OVER
MIDDLE TX COAST...AND 1.75-2 INCHES FROM HOU-CRP LINE EWD. 
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD WITH BANDS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOES
THAT LOCALLY EXACERBATES HEAVY RAIN HAZARD.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE FAVOR ROTATING
STORMS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND RISK OF OCCASIONAL
HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS NEAR GULF COAST AREA FRONT.  HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE N OF THAT FRONT IN ZONE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY ACROSS
MUCH OF TX COASTAL PLAIN.

..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

29029741 29749643 30579504 30709377 30549353 30619250
30129315 29789288 29439320 29229337 29109379 28889421
28739452 28489516 28309605 27819681 26809919 

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