[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020054 
TXZ000-OKZ000-020330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF
SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020054Z - 020330Z

TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SPS/MWL AREAS THEN SSWWD
ACROSS PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. 
LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

TSTMS ARE FORMING AS ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- DPVA
AHEAD OF ELP-AREA MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- IMPINGES UPON SFC WARM
SECTOR.  AIR MASS HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY PRIOR FROPA AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION BUT STILL CONTAINS SUFFICIENT THETAE TO SUPPORT
TSTMS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F.  FWD RAOB APPEARS TO BE
JUST E OF COOLING ALOFT...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS JUST W-SW
OF THERE SHOW 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS BUT 80-90
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY 70-80 KT 500 MB
SPEED MAX-- WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. 
ALTHOUGH DRT RAOB CONTAINED APPARENTLY SPURIOUS SUPERADIABATIC LAYER
BETWEEN ABOUT 830-930 MB...ADJUSTMENT STILL INDICATES THAT LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT HAS REACHED THAT FAR SE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30579911 31919872 33049850 34349839 34479776 34099686
33349667 32509662 31489695 30419845 

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