[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020034 
MSZ000-LAZ000-020230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020034Z - 020230Z

MARGINAL TORNADO AND STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN
PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF FRONT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CALDWELL PARISH SWWD
ACROSS AEX/LCH AREAS...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MAINLY LINEAR IN MODE BUT
WITH BRIEF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.  SMALL
DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN LA ARE IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR I-10...DECREASING TO
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NERN LA.  ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME...CENTRAL/SRN LA WILL
REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ANOTHER FEW
HOURS WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F...LOW LCL AND ONLY SLOW DIABATIC
COOLING AT SFC.  PROFILER AND SOUNDING WINDS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH IN
150-250 J/KG RANGE...INCREASING NWD AS BUOYANCY DECREASES...AND
AROUND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS.

..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29789331 30399303 32069227 32649190 32879142 32979115
32979084 32759066 32439066 32009084 31009121 29839181
29599197 29459216 29329248 29389307 29509351 

WWWW