[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012357 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...SERN AR...NWRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...

VALID 012357Z - 020200Z

LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 2345Z FROM WRN TIP
KY SSWWD ACROSS MEM METRO THEN TO NEAR GLH...WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EWD ACROSS WW AREA INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL 
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
TIME THIS EVENING.  TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND THREATS ARE LIKEWISE
DIMINISHING BUT...GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND UNTIL WW EXPIRES OR CONVECTION MOVES
OUT OF WW.

PRE-STORM AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES BUT SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F.  INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL BUT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OVER MS PORTION WW WHERE RESIDUAL
DIABATIC HEATING -- TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S F -- CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
300-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED
CELLS...WITH UP TO ABOUT 400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AS DERIVED FROM MEM VWP
HODOGRAPH.  BAND OF PRECIP HAS PASSED ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL AND SERN
AR...SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZING AIR MASS AND REDUCING SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS.  ACCORDINGLY WW CAN BE CLEARED AWAY W OF MS
RIVER...WHEREVER IT HAS NOT BEEN DISCONTINUED LOCALLY ALREADY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

36469037 36468892 33618998 33629138 

WWWW