[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011758 
NMZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 011758Z - 012230Z

SNOW INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NM WITH
A GRADUAL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1"/HR ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z
FROM TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES SSWWD THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS.

A VERY COLD/SHARP 500MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN MT SWWD THRU ERN
AZ/WRN NM THIS MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN
NM. THIS CLOSED CENTER WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO/FAR WRN TX BY
02/00Z AS STRONG UPWIND JET STREAK /85KT 500MB WIND AT FGZ PER
MORNING RAOB/ RESULTS IN FURTHER DIGGING OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL
COOLING...AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT INCREASED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NM AT 17Z. 
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL PLUME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL NOT BE
TAPPED...FOCUSED ASCENT THROUGH 700MB DEFORMATION AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF 60KT
NLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVIDENT ON PUB VAD IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD INTO
E-CENTRAL NM WITH TIME WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COOL. SURFACE WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 39KT AT CAO AND RTN PER 17Z OBS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 03Z. STRONGEST UVV IS EXPECTED DURING
21-03Z DURING WHICH TIME 1"/HR SNOW RATES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
BASED ON 700MB ETA FORECAST...SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NRN SACRAMENTO MTNS AS 60-70KT SPEED MAX BUILDS SWD INTO NM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES.

..BANACOS.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

35180559 35280395 35130373 34280385 33590436 32470564
33330664 34180658 35030628 

WWWW