[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011517 
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AR...NW LA...SE MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011517Z - 011715Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS CELLS TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AR...NW LA AND SE MO.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX EXTENDING NWD
THROUGH WRN AR WITH STRONG STORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS
PARTIALLY EXPLAINS WHY THERE IS NOT MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IS CREATING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS. VAD WIND PROFILES
FROM LITTLE ROCK CURRENTLY SHOW VERY STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF
ABOUT 40 KT. THIS IS DUE TO THE BACKED SSELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH
SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS STRONG SHEAR COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. IN ADDITION...THE FAST STORM
MOTION TO THE NNE OF 40 TO 45 KT WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV...

31589401 33719316 36009220 37489148 37649085 37299057
36189080 35209130 31929282 31189348 

WWWW