[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011911 
ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NCNTRL LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...

VALID 011911Z - 012045Z

A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE REMAINDER
OF TORNADO WATCH 875. A REPLACEMENT WILL BE CONSIDERED ONCE THE
CURRENT WATCH NEARS EXPIRATION AT 21Z.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO
NNE FROM NCNTRL LA TO SE MO WITH STRONG CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH SOME
BOWING IN THE LINE ACROSS NRN LA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET
ORGANIZING AT 700 MB JUST BEHIND THE LINE AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE
ACCELERATION OF THE LINE TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE LA WHERE A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS
PRESENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS DESTABILIZATION
CONTINUES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
ROTATING STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

31199308 31879300 32959262 34009221 35259163 35349064
33919104 31669181 31169204 31069261 31149314 

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