[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011140 
LAZ000-TXZ000-011245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011140Z - 011245Z

MARGINAL THREATS FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX.

LINE OF TSTMS HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE
SWWD TO JUST WEST OF ANGLETON. THESE TSTMS WERE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DIGGING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  HOUSTON RADAR SHOWS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ACCELERATING EWD FROM LARGE PCPN SHIELD LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL TX. 
GIVEN STORM MOTION NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW THE
LINE OF TSTMS WILL SHORTLY BE UNDERCUT.  THUS...DESPITE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /0-1KM SRH 110-150 M2/S2/ FOR ISOLD
TORNADOES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME.

AGGREGATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE BASED WARM
SECTOR ACTIVITY.  BUT...THE MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE
UNDERCUT BY THE APPROACHING COLD POOL...LEAVING HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..RACY.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

28979572 30129570 31569528 31539384 29249378 28399542 

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