[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010119 
COZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PALMER RIDGE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF E-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 010119Z - 010545Z

HVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 04-09Z ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
ADJACENT AREAS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH RATES OF 1"/HR LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD...IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING NNWLY SURFACE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.

DEEP THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS CO TONIGHT WHILE DIGGING SWD ACROSS NM IN RESPONSE TO UPWIND
80-90KT 500MB JET MOVING FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO AZ THIS
EVENING. RECENT ETA RUNS INDICATE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM. LEE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
REDEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NM IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE/CLOUD BAND ON IR IMAGERY WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AROUND 06Z AND LIKELY INTENSIFY AS
DIVERGENCE INCREASES ALOFT. CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE
VERTICAL PROFILES FOR SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 05-06Z.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER OF 2.5 KFT
BETWEEN 05-09Z WITHIN STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REGION THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS
FOR SNOW GROWTH. 

THE 12/18Z ETA RUNS AND 21Z RUC DEPICT HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT NEAR
O.1" ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DEN/LIC WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
PERIODS OF HVY SNOW AND 1"/HR ACCUMULATIONS ONCE GROUND TEMPS
SUFFICIENTLY COOL. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN LEE CYCLONE AND BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG NLY WIND GUSTS ALONG THE PALMER
RIDGE TO 40KT AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES SWD AND PRECIP RATES LESSEN TOWARD 09Z.

..BANACOS.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

39380509 39890497 40090475 40130427 40050359 39360340
39160341 38930348 38750367 38700397 38680479 38730507 

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