[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010018 
TXZ000-OKZ000-010215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010018Z - 010215Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FROM GRAYSON/COOKE/DENTON
COUNTIES SWD ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH METROPLEX TO NEAR ACT AND
JCT.  SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL/BRIEF TO WARRANT
WW...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

SFC DATA FOR ANALYSIS REMAINS VERY LIMITED DUE TO FAA COMMS OUTAGE
-- PER LATEST SDM MESSAGES.  HOWEVER AVAILABLE DFW/NFW AND OK
MESONET OBS...COMBINED WITH FORMER FINE LINE IN REFLECTIVITY
COMPOSITES...SUGGEST WSW-ENE ORIENTED BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NERN PARKER...NRN TARRANT...SERN DENTON AND
W-CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTIES.  ANY CELLS WHICH CROSS THIS BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY INTENSIFY THEIR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITH BRIEF TORNADO A
SMALL POSSIBILITY.  OTHER CELLS IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR --
BETWEEN DAL-ACT AS OF 00Z -- MAY ROTATE AS WELL AS THEY MOVES NNEWD
TOWARD ERN PORTIONS METROPLEX. FWD VWP HODOGRAPH MODIFIED FOR DFW
SFC WIND YIELDS AROUND 200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER...WITH VALUES
SLIGHTLY LESS IN FWD RAOB.

ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN WEAK...UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
AND RESIDUAL DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY.  00Z FWD RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER METROPLEX AND SWD
THROUGH ACT AREA...DECREASING NWD INTO LOWER THETAE AIR MASS NEAR
RED RIVER.  SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

31019867 32239842 32659788 33139741 33779713 33749633
33509602 32689616 31659679 30979774 

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