[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312049 
MIZ000-312145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355...

VALID 312049Z - 312145Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS LOWER MI
ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN WI SEWD TO SWRN
MI/NWRN IND.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
LOWER MI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
GIVEN LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /6000-8000 FT/...THOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL.

..PETERS.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

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