[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311926 
TXZ000-312130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN /  E- CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311926Z - 312130Z

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA NWWD TO JUST W OF TYR TX.  A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS ALSO LOCATED FROM SRN AR SWWD ACROSS NRN TX...WITH OUTFLOW
/ STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION JUST SE OF SEP. A HEAT LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR JCT AT 19Z.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND ALSO OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE IT IS VERY HOT. 
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
UPPER WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OR STATIONARY FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING W OF AUS AS WELL...WHERE HEAT LOW IS
CAUSING WINDS IN MOIST AIR TO BACK.  

WLY 30-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. 
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

32409646 32059550 31079406 30429392 29959411 29639524
30289666 30119764 29689807 30259896 31209879 32099828 

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