[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312228 
FLZ000-GAZ000-010000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356...

VALID 312228Z - 010000Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS WW AREA. 

LATEST DATA INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM ROUGHLY 40 SSW VLD TO
35 SE JAX -- SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WW AREA.  AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST / UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY BECOME LESS UNSTABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LATEST JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 30 KT MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BUT WITH FAIRLY WEAK / UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS...
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG W-E OUTFLOW -- ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME.

ONE STRONG / ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS GRADY /
MITCHELL COUNTIES IN SWRN GA EXTRAPOLATES TO LOWNDES COUNTY GA /
HAMILTON COUNTY FL -- THE VERY NWRN MOST PORTION OF THIS WATCH -- AT
01/00Z.  GIVEN THAT THIS WATCH EXPIRES AT 00Z...THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS STORM MAY DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW.  ATTM...EXPECT STORM
TO WEAKEN...AND THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.  HOWEVER...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30568293 31308119 30008119 29278294 

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