[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311853 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-311930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN VA INTO SRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311853Z - 311930Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN VA INTO SRN MD.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NRN VA SEWD ACROSS THE FAR SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH
AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE
MID 70S F.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NWRN VA...30 N SHD.  AIR MASS TO THE ESE OF
THIS ACTIVITY RANGES FROM MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL VA TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN VA AND THE FAR SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY
AREA.  A BAND OF 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS
REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.
 DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...WHILE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

37937842 38897783 38787665 38097550 36637551 36497587
37037835 

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