[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301604 
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-301800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL...WRN IN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 329...

VALID 301604Z - 301800Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL EXPIRATION AT 18Z.  NEW
WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

MESO LOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS NEAR/NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON IL
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FORMING
ABOVE REMNANT NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT WITH FURTHER HEATING
ISOLATED SUPERCELL ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL.  

OTHERWISE...MODELS SUGGEST WARMING ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE MAY CAP ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS...UNTIL SEVERE THREAT INCREASES ONCE
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE NOW NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO INTO THE
LOUISVILLE KY AREA WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
IT SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED ON NOSE OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IWX...IND...MKX...

40648834 40408781 39788764 39498852 40158914 

42098648 40918512 39618564 40088715 40638778 41508820
42448842 42588713 

WWWW