[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301713 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PARTS OF NW IL...SW WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301713Z - 301915Z

RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS INCREASING ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...CENTERED NEAR DUBUQUE AT 16Z...HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NOW WEST
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.  THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD NEXT
FEW HOURS...AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC POLAR JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSOURI.

AXIS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN IOWA
BORDER/MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 21Z...AND WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELL NEAR SURFACE WAVE HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED TORNADOES...AND MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE KIRKSVILLE
AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  MAIN
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM.

..KERR.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42879164 43409090 42828990 41908952 40869016 40209111
40439194 40939240 

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