[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301504 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301504Z - 301730Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCHES AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
 A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR BY THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME.

NEW CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEAR/EAST OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MO.  THIS IS IN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME ROOTED
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND
INCREASING.  AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG AN
AXIS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND WEST 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
 EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN POLAR/ SUBTROPICAL
JETS.

..KERR.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

38189021 38938884 38478723 36888641 36368843 36838952 

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