[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301440 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF MO/SE IA/W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301440Z - 301715Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.  ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO
EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...BUT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS.

LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT. 
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING/LIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER OK
INTO AREAS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS
FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH LITTLE TO IMPEDE SURFACE
HEATING.  WARM SECTOR SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE LINEAR FORCING MAY SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
LINE...AS WELL AS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
LINE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...NOW JUST EAST OF
KANSAS CITY MO...MAY POSE MOST SIGNIFICANT INITIAL THREAT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL FORMATION.  STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BECOME EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT INITIATION BY/
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MO INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.

..KERR.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OUN...

37439465 39289405 40009396 40529377 40959265 40789107
39798987 37419110 36639256 35229432 34649600 34779670 

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