[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301224 
TXZ000-301400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301224Z - 301400Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
AND MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CNTRL
TX.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL TX SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SPITE OF THE CAP PROBABLY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET. SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE 700 MB WITH
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS CNTRL TX. MID-LEVEL TEMPS
ARE QUITE WARM WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND +13 C. STILL...THE UPDRAFTS
MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN PLACE (7.0 C/KM). THE GFS AND NCEP REF MODELS AGREE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX AND MOVE IT NEWD INTO
NE TX GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT LATE THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31549977 32259898 32589771 32439696 32229681 31529678
30699817 30579954 30979978 

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