[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291933 
OKZ000-TXZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291933Z - 292130Z

MASS FIELDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU BUILDING ALONG DRYLINE IN THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK.  CONVERGENCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY FOCUSED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE...BUT AREA PROFILERS
IN NM AND W TX INDICATE EFFECTS OF SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE BEING
FELT WITH WINDS AT MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO BACK A BIT.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO UNIFORM VEERING OF WINDS BEHIND TCU LINE AT THE
MOMENT...INDICATING SLIGHT DISORGANIZATION OF DRYLINE FORCING
MECHANISM...GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY QUICK ONCE DEEP CONVERGENCE BECOMES
SUFFICIENT. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.

COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE / DEWPOINT SPREADS 25-30 F AND STRONG SLY
SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE TX/ WRN OK BORDER MAY HOLD MOST SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT AT BAY INITIALLY...UNTIL STORMS GET INTO DEEPER MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INTO WRN OK LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34300079 34930041 35700020 36520006 36789885 36569811
34159885 34070093 

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