[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292012 
MNZ000-NDZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292012Z - 292215Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY APPARENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOPS TO THE WEST OF JAMESTOWN ND.  STRONGER FORCING
WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH
MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
AREA.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF SHEAR AXIS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS IMPEDED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THIS
REGION IS POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46649958 47239956 47969967 48729941 48919848 48789701
46409699 45979821 

WWWW