[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291854 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB...NE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291854Z - 292130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN NEAR TERM...
BUT ONE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF DENVER.  THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED
BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND MID-LEVEL COOLING FOCUSED
AHEAD OF BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG.  THIS MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH
STRONGER STORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

EVENTUALLY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
 AS THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...AS
HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO VERY WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WEST OF DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

..KERR.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39250386 39790470 40660360 40250273 40900171 40750036
39680032 38660090 38140250 38390380 

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