[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291802 
NEZ000-KSZ000-292000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL/CNTRL KS...S CNTRL/SE NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291802Z - 292000Z

INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH TRANSITION TO
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES 
THEREAFTER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME
APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE VICINITY OF HILL CITY
THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF SALINA.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS...EAST OF SURFACE LOW NOW
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF RUSSELL.  LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CAP IS
CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES IN CAPPING LAYER NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS LIKELY
WILL DEVELOP.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIATION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 21Z
EAST OF HILL CITY...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CONCORDIA KS/HASTINGS AND BEATRICE NEB AREAS. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE HODOGRAPHS BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 29/21-30/00Z TIME FRAME. 
BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 70F...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK...TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40089988 40759929 40959798 40749668 39669633 38289777
38779874 39389995 

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