[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291742 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291742Z - 291915Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT.  A WW COULD BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSOLATION VICINITY
OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER CU INCREASING.  DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S F THROUGH ADVECTION WHICH IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE AND
HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER.  CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 80 F AS INDICATED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  AMPLE LOW
LEVEL HELICITY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

COMPLICATING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION.  SLA AND FBY PROFILERS
SHOWS ONLY 10-15 KTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KM AGL.  HOWEVER...THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.  STORMS SHOULD THUS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME.

..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

40649231 40789351 41149458 41409515 43149838 43639840
44619789 42629367 41989244 41579166 40669130 

WWWW