[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290441 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320...

VALID 290441Z - 290615Z

TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN/CNTRL
IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  ISOLD DAMAGING
WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IA.

PROFILER/VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET
HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 60 KTS...SIMILAR TO LATEST RUC FORECAST.  AN
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR WATERTOWN SEWD TOWARD FT.
DODGE AND CARROLL IA.  PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EXHIBIT MUCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND GIVEN 45-50
KTS OF CAPE-BEARING SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONALLY...WHAT WERE SUPERCELLS EARLIER THIS EVENING IN THE
SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY AREAS HAVE EVOLVED INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS AND
ARE MOVING INTO WCNTRL IA.  THESE CELLS...WHILE PROBABLY ELEVATED
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SMALL DAMAGING
WIND PROBABILITY.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD INTO POSSIBLY WCNTRL MN SEWD INTO
NCNTRL IA IN A FEW HOURS.

..RACY.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

42109623 44429837 45469761 45729628 44929470 42099312 

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