[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281907 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...NRN GA...PARTS OF WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281907Z - 282130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...NOW NORTH/EAST OF THE BIRMINGHAM
AREA...MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR JET CORE AHEAD OF
WEAKENING UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.  THIS FORCING APPEARS
LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA BY 21-22Z...INTO AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF AUGUSTA AFTER 29/00Z.  BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THIS AXIS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND DEEPENING
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS/WEAK LAPSE RATES HAVE MINIMIZED CAPE
AND INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...AREA OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ASCENT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO WEAK...50+ KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL ENHANCE
SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION/PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE CRITERIA APPEARS RATHER
MARGINAL...SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

34098592 34528504 34168226 33028251 33148409 33278665
33598640 

WWWW