[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281836 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...CNTRL MS...W CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281836Z - 282100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT
TERM...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  CORE OF MID/UPPER JET
IS PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...BUT BELT OF
MODERATELY STRONG 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHERE
FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  

HEATING AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG.  THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AND WILL REMAIN RATHER
POOR.  THOUGH HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE STORM PROPAGATION...RISK OF GUSTY/ POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES.

..KERR.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

30679289 31709186 32249118 33099021 33398926 33348750
32288898 30369131 

WWWW