[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281655 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281655Z - 281930Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A WW.

NARROW LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS BECOMING FOCUS
FOR DESTABILIZATION AS MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF
REGION.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 500 J/KG OR SO...BUT MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH. 

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BELT OF MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES.  AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT/APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS AS THEY SPREAD EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

..KERR.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

44457294 44997214 44717162 43787217 42877251 41647303
41077401 41457462 43067390 44337315 

WWWW