[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281629 
MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH INTO NRN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281629Z - 281900Z

CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH HEATING
...SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...AND THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...ACROSS CENTRAL OH.  THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD...STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 

INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN
COOL CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...LIKELY BELOW 50 KT... BUT STILL CAPABLE
OF SOME SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE.

..KERR.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

39248323 39848327 40278282 40328093 39758010 39527964
39317926 38538067 38288151 38388251 38868262