[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280327 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR SRN IND AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 317...

VALID 280327Z - 280500Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN/ERN HALF OF WW 317 FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WW EXPIRATION TIME. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH
THE BOW ECHO/SUPERCELLS OVER FAR SERN IL/FAR SRN IND INTO WRN KY.
SEVERE THREAT OVER SERN MO WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO INCREASING
ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER
FAR SERN IL AND SWRN IND. EXTRAPOLATED 45-50 KT SEWD LINE MOTION
WILL TAKE SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE SERN CORNER OF WW 317...THE
BOWLING GREEN AREA...BY AROUND 05Z. CONVECTION ON THE WRN PORTION OF
THE LINE OVER SERN MO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
MOVES SSEWD OUT OF WW 317 AND SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO FAR
SERN MO AND SWRN KY BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. LONG LIVED SUPERCELL OVER
FAR SRN IND APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HANCOCK CO INTO LARUE CO OVER
NCENTRAL KY. IF STRONGLY DEVIANT SEWD MOTION CAN OCCUR WITH THIS
SUPERCELL AND BRING THE STORM DOWN THIS BOUNDARY THEN A GREATER
TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT
OVER THE ERN HALF OF WW 317 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVER THE WRN
HALF OF WW 317 THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ABOVE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF...

37709125 37069122 37098992 37168555 38438553 38458688
37908813 37598941 

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