[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271907 
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN PA...MD...NRN VA...ERN VA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271907Z - 272100Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM W-CENTRAL VA NEWD
INTO SERN PA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY LIMIT NEED FOR A WATCH.  

AT 19Z...GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS NRN VA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL CREST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
SMALL-SCALE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONES OR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. WLY TO WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESEWD AROUND 25
KT.

..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

37977949 39547857 39997775 40067700 39957633 39207626
38507628 37977626 37557668 37477767 37527848 37707915 

WWWW