[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271852 
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308...

VALID 271852Z - 272045Z

NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 308 WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...
OTHERWISE CONTINUE WW 308.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL LIFT/
MOISTENING IN DIFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES
OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...PAST FEW HOURS.  AS THIS
TREND CONTINUES...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER TO BEGIN DEVELOPING MORE SOUTHWARD
THAN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER.  

OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  AS THIS AIR MASS BEGINS FEEDING
INTO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY...WITH
STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR RAIN CORES FOR EVOLUTION OF
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. LOUIS THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

40319538 40329433 40419285 40469188 39959092 39308988
38669054 38489181 38599325 38999417 39419459 

WWWW