[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271807 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...S CNTRL IND...SW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271807Z - 272000Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL
WWS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS READILY
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO...GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF QUINCY/
SPRINGFIELD/BLOOMINGTON AND CINCINNATI.  VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH 70F DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND
2000 J/KG.  LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO REMAIN...
AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.  FORCING ON
TAIL END OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AIDED EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER WIND
FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ACTIVITY
BECOMES ROOTED IN VERY MOIST/BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER.

..KERR.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX...

40469030 40708913 40598793 40168661 39848521 39818420
39158373 38868420 38648563 39728996 

WWWW