[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271610 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-271815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN MO INTO W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271610Z - 271815Z

WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

TAIL END OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO JUST NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER TO THE WEST OF LAMONI.  AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD...ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THIS BAND THROUGH THE HANNIBAL/QUINCY
AREA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. 

FURTHER HEATING WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DESPITE RELATIVELY SMALL/WEAK
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..KERR.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

41109447 41079248 41119055 40418826 39338875 39069022
39059209 40069457 

WWWW