[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270653 
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-270930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN IL...SRN INDIANA AND NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270653Z - 270930Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELEVATED TSTM
CLUSTERS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN INDIANA...TOWARD THAT PORTION OF
NRN KY NE THRU ENE OF SDF.  OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL
SHOULD MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO SRN INDIANA.  PRIND THREAT IS MARGINAL
ENOUGH NOT TO NEED WW.

AIR MASS NEAR SFC HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PASSAGE OF EARLIER MCS
PRESENTLY OVER SERN KY.  HOWEVER...ABOVE THAT COLD POOL...STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA IS AIDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.  PARCELS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC AS THIS ELEVATED BUOYANCY PLUME
-- MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG -- SHIFTS ACROSS OH RIVER INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS KY.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE-BEARING LAYER IS
FAVORABLE WITH VALUES OF AT LEAST 50-60 KT.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER
BUOYANCY...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG SEVERE LIMITS MAY PENETRATE
STABLE LAYER TO REACH SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38188575 38538748 38878909 38999021 39189052 39349044
39509006 39628859 39478670 38658333 38508269 38038247
37618268 37778365 38138543 

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