[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270616 
MOZ000-KSZ000-270815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306...

VALID 270616Z - 270815Z

BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 6Z FROM OSAGE COUNTY KS SEWD INTO
WW 304 -- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES ENEWD
TOWARD PORTIONS KC METRO AREA AND BEYOND INTO WRN MO.  SOME NWWD
BACKBUILDING OF LINE ALSO IS POSSIBLE....WITH NEW CELL GROWTH
EVIDENT ATTM OVER PORTIONS LYON/WABAUNSEE COUNTIES.  INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THIS BAND -- AND POSSIBLY MORE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. 
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-RH LATER NEAR 850
MB -- AT BOTTOM OF DEEP PLUME OF 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES --
CONTRIBUTES TO 3000-3500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR INDICATED THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM ABOVE INVERSION LAYER.  MAIN
THREAT REMAINS LARGE HAIL...THOUGH WITH SUCH LARGE BUOYANCY...CANNOT
ELIMINATE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT PUNCHING
THROUGH RELATIVELY STABLE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38459270 38319612 38749665 39369604 39529268 

WWWW