[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270414 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-270615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO...SRN IL...W KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 304...305...

VALID 270414Z - 270615Z

A RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW/S.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW/FRONT SITUATED FROM SRN IL WWD ACROSS SRN
MO TO NEAR EMPORIA KS. PROFILERS/VWP SHOWS THAT A SWLY LLJ HAS
INCREASED AND IS ORIENTED FROM WRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY.  THIS WARM ADVECTION DERIVED
LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
ACROSS SERN KS INTO MO...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE
LOWER OH VLY.

A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SWRN  MO THIS EVENING.  IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT IS RICH WITH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY THROUGH THE KTBN AREA TO
SRN IL/W KY.  THUS...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THAT CORRIDOR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...TSTMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN KS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED AND WILL DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO WCNTRL/SWRN MO THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 
IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA...A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED NORTH OF THE TORNADO WATCH 304.

ALL ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO FROM SERN MO/SRN IL INTO W KY.

..RACY.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37229703 38209706 39329490 39349256 38548998 38438705
37138708 

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