[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262237 
OKZ000-TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...

VALID 262237Z - 270000Z

CONTINUE WW.

AT 2220Z...SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED 40 ENE CSM MOVING ENEWD AT 40KT.
PRESENT MOTION SUGGESTS STORM IS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM
INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTION OF THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN
2330-0000Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM SPLITS DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED EWD IN CENTRAL OK TO
ADDRESS SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS.

IF RIGHT MOVING CELL SLOWS DOWN AND MOVES WITH MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...THIS WOULD STRONGLY INDICATE UPDRAFT HAS BECOME ROOTED
IN MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE AROUND 3000
J/KG/. TLX VAD INDICATES A SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL WOULD MOVE
ROUGHLY 270/20 KT GIVEN PRESENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THIS WOULD
CONDITIONALLY INCREASE TORNADO THREAT...BUT PRESENCE OF MODERATE
CAPPING INVERSION MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNCERTAIN.

OTHER ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN OK IN
VICINITY OF NOW RETREATING DRYLINE OVER SRN JACKSON COUNTY OK AND
HARDEMAN COUNTY TX.

..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34439847 34430056 36959901 36909693 

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