[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262257 
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-270030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...SRN IL AND EXTREME W KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...

VALID 262257Z - 270030Z

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS BUILT BACK NEWD INTO
SWRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HIGH/MIDLEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY HAS HELD BACK STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  THUS...MOST OF
THE AREA HAS REMAINED QUIET...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ELEVATED TSTMS
DEVELOPING IN RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NORTH OF THE
AREA.

A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED SW OF KVIH ALONG THE FRONT/ OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  THE CELLS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED JUST NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE CAP.  HOWEVER... THESE STORMS
MAY ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND TAP MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. 
PROXIMITY RUC2 SOUNDINGS HAVE 0-1KM SRH OF 225 M2/S2 AND IF TSTMS
CAN INDEED DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY/ FRONT...RISKS OF TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM AROUND KSGF-KCGI.  

OTHERWISE...AS THE TSTMS DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME WITH THREATS FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

TORNADO WATCH 294 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

..RACY.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

36589442 38389347 38338793 36528905 

WWWW