[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262227 
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...NERN TN...EXTREME SWRN VA AND NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...

VALID 262227Z - 270000Z

LEADING EDGE OF CNTRL APPALACHIAN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS
OF SWRN VA AND NWRN NC WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS
NRN TN INTO SWRN KY.  COLD POOL IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD...BUT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SWRN KY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN PARTS OF WW 296.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE TORNADOES.  VWPS SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT BRIEF SPIN-UPS WITH THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
IN THE WARM SECTOR.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN WW 296...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NERN PARTS
OF THE WW IN SERN KY/SWRN VA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT TSTMS MAY
REGENERATE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN WW ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS.

..RACY.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36748803 37918786 36748156 35578166 

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