[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262157 
NCZ000-262300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262157Z - 262300Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN NC
IN THE NEXT HOUR.

MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARD
CNTRL VA AND CNTRL/SRN NC THIS EVENING.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE
WLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR E THE MCS CAN
SURVIVE.  GIVEN MEAN WLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE FACT THAT
MCS HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...DOWNSTREAM AREAS FROM CNTRL/SRN
NC MAY HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS SOON AS IT IS A
LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAT THE STORMS CAN SURVIVE EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..RACY.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

36028149 36137996 36057783 35247776 34817825 34627862
35008067 35348137