[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262115 
PAZ000-MDZ000-262315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262115Z - 262315Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL PA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT
DURATION OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW.

AT 21Z...INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO S-CENTRAL NY. SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS AREA IN LOW CIN
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY EWD AT 25 KTS. SFC-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MID-LEVEL STORM ROTATION...ENHANCING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT BOUNDARY LAYER COOL
ACROSS NJ AND FAR ERN PA WHERE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS STORMS TRACK EAST. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF A LINE FROM AVP TO 40 SW ABE.

..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

40817783 41557744 41917667 41897600 41627558 40967543
40297550 39847578 39747590 39637639 39547714 39807786