[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262032 
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...

VALID 262032Z - 262200Z

CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW.

AS OF 20Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF PAH WNWWD TO N OF SGF.
AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH 16Z SGF
SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS...SWLY WINDS IN THE
1-3KM LAYER ARE LIKELY ADVECTING WARMER AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 18Z
LMN SOUNDING INTO THE REGION. THUS...CAP MAY BE STRENGTHENING TO
SOME DEGREE AT LEAST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. FARTHER
E...TCU/SMALL CBS OVER TEXAS/DENT COUNTIES SUGGESTS THAT CAP IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE AN UPSTREAM
 70-75KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS. FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY OFFSET PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT SGF VWP INDICATES SHEAR PROFILES
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

FARTHER E...SUPERCELL OVER CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IS MOVING ESEWD
ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM KY MCS. THOUGH
PAH REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY IS MOVING S...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE STORM BECOMING
ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL.

..MEAD.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

38439353 38438776 36438891 36469454