[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261655 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-261830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PA SWD INTO WV/WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261655Z - 261830Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER ARMSTRONG AND BUTLER COUNTIES OF WRN PA WITH ADDITIONAL MORE
MATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FARTHER S OVER EXTREME SERN OH AND WRN
WV. THOUGH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DAYTIME HEATING...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME PA INTO CNTRL
OH AS OF 16Z.

CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN IL/IND SHOULD PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. RELATIVELY STRONG AND DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

39098162 41037968 41977833 41807614 40387730 38777935
37848050 38318219 

WWWW