[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261550 
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS IL/IND AND MUCH
OF KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292...

VALID 261550Z - 261715Z

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF WW 292...AND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S AND E OF WW AREA.
THUS...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION IN RAPID MOVING MCS HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN IND AND SRN IL. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SRN
FLANK OF SYSTEM FROM HARDIN COUNTY WWD INTO WILLIAMSON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES OF FAR SRN IL.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SERN MO...WRN KY AND WRN TN COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM
/PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS/ IS ADVECTING THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SYSTEM AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR AFOREMENTIONED STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON SRN FLANK.

STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 60-70KTS AT 500MB AND 
100-110KTS AT 250MB/ WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND EVENT EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER AND SWD ACROSS KY. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..MEAD.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

39098995 39078513 38978313 36598408 36578930 37418977
37339147 

WWWW