[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261712 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...WRN/SWRN TX...AND FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261712Z - 261945Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX
NNEWD INTO SWRN/WRN OK. WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN
OK SOON.

AT 17Z...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN OK
PANHANDLE...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR
NRN OK INTO SWRN MO. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND MIX EWD INTO WRN OK AND THEN ARC SWWD ALONG A CDS-LBB LINE.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND DEVELOPING CUMULUS TOWERS SOUTH OF AMA TO EAST
OF CVS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH MUCAPE
AXIS OF 3000-4000 J/KG FROM MAF TO CDS AND RAPID WEAKENING OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER WRN TX. TRENDS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN TX/SRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CAP BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER EWD ACROSS WRN
INTO CENTRAL OK...WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT.

UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF SWRN U.S. CLOSED
LOW. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT. SUPERCELL STORMS WITH EWD/ESEWD
STORM MOTIONS AT 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE CAN
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FURTHER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD
ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM MAF INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS REGION
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

31800100 30990172 30410214 30220241 30180317 30280372
30750389 31450351 33380322 34230269 34890104 35270015
35849956 36419930 36339860 35439852 34009848 33220038 

WWWW